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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 29

Carolina Panthers 14 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.65 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model