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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 53

Carolina Panthers 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to NYG 3, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-O.Beckham MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 3, RECOVERED by CAR-42-C.Jones at NYG 0. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.36 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 53, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP