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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 12

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.43 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 12, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP