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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 1-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to MIN 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-29-A.Maddox.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP