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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 19

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.70 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 19, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP