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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 34

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 5-D.Bailey 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.23 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.82 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model