Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

(1:27) 6-M.Wile punts 35 yards to PHI 34, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model