Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

(2:56) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to MIN 35, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-B.Zylstra to MIN 44 for 9 yards (45-R.Lovato, 27-M.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.72 EP
67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 76, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model