4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 27

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.68 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model