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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 58

Los Angeles Rams 33 – Seattle Seahawks 31

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 16-J.Goff up the middle to LA 44 for 2 yards (51-B.Mingo).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.05 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 58, worth -1.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model