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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 72

Seattle Seahawks 31 – Los Angeles Rams 30

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to LA 18, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 17-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.81 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 30, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model