Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 82

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 5 yards to SEA 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 41-M.Christian to SEA 12 for 11 yards (59-J.Martin). Punt was deflected by LA 58 Littleton

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.39 EP
59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 82, worth -4.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model