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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 34

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.08 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model