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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to SEA 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 14 for -3 yards (50-S.Ebukam).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.58 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 55, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP