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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 66

Kansas City Chiefs 30 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 63 yards to JAX 3, Center-41-J.Winchester. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 9 for 6 yards (26-Dam. Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.72 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -1.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 24, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model