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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 11

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(4:37) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 84-K.Cole to KC 2 for 9 yards (24-J.Lucas; 23-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP