Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 46

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

(13:41) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy to KC 35 for 11 yards (48-Te.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.54 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP

KICK -1.05 EP

37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
63% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP

Chose GO ✓ matched the model