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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 20

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 4-Vinatieri 673rd career FGA, passes G.Anderson for 2nd all-time (M. Andersen 709).

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.93 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model