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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 81

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to NE 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at IND 49 for 15 yards (52-N.Goode).

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 38, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model