4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 15

Indianapolis Colts 17 – New England Patriots 38

What Actually Happened

(3:29) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short left to 85-E.Ebron [94-A.Clayborn].

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.10 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP