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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 34

Indianapolis Colts 17 – New England Patriots 38

What Actually Happened

(4:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 11-R.Grant to NE 24 for 10 yards (23-P.Chung).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model