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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 51

Indianapolis Colts 3 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to NE 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-28-C.Milton.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model