Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 74

New England Patriots 14 – Indianapolis Colts 3

(8:03) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to IND 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-C.Rogers to IND 22 for 5 yards (50-N.Grigsby).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.83 EP
62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 74, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model