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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 36

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 4-A.Vinatieri 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.02 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model