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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 43

Denver Broncos 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 3-C.Wadman punts 20 yards to NYJ 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.69 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model