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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 12

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 2-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.26 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model