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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 45

New York Jets 34 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.24 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.03 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model