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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 12

New York Jets 24 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 2-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 12, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model