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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 31

New York Jets 21 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 2-J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.62 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT +0.48 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model