Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 17 at the 49

Denver Broncos 10 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(11:34) 3-C.Wadman punts 34 yards to NYJ 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 40-T.Cannon. Denver challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 11:26.)

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.77 EP
77% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP

KICK -1.65 EP

28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
72% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model