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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 56

New York Jets 14 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to DEN 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 24-A.Jones to DEN 14 for 1 yard (40-T.Cannon).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.82 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model