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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 17 at the 68

Denver Broncos 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 3-C.Wadman punts 45 yards to NYJ 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.57 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model