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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 25

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 2-B.Maher 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.41 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model