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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 16 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 6-C.Jones punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback. PENALTY on HOU-5-J.Webb, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.81 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -1.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model