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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 70

Houston Texans 16 – Dallas Cowboys 16

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 8-T.Daniel punts 47 yards to DAL 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Austin to DAL 45 for 22 yards (23-J.Bademosi).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 70, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model