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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 30

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 2-B.Maher 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.08 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model