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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 1

Houston Texans 13 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 7-K.Fairbairn 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +3.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 1, worth +0.76 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.05 EP