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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 67

Houston Texans 13 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 8-T.Daniel punts 52 yards to DAL 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Austin to DAL 15 for no gain (5-J.Webb).

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.12 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 25, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP