Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 61

Houston Texans 10 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 8-T.Daniel punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. PENALTY on HOU-23-J.Bademosi, Illegal Touch Kick, 0 yards, enforced at DAL 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.40 EP
61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 61, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model