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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 6-C.Jones punts 36 yards to HOU 19, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 21-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.59 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP