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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 44

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 4-B.Colquitt punts 28 yards to BAL 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-T.White.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.44 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model