4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 37

Cleveland Browns 9 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(:09) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +1.22 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model