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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 14

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Cleveland Browns 9

What Actually Happened

(:56) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.03 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model