Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 77

Cleveland Browns 9 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(4:39) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to BAL 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-T.White to CLE 42 for 25 yards (55-G.Avery). PENALTY on BAL-40-K.Young, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.30 EP
70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model