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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 9 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(13:50) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 64 yards to BAL 2, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-T.White to BAL 12 for 10 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP