4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 57

Cleveland Browns 6 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(11:53) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.98 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 17, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model