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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 57

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 22 for 12 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.; 47-D.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.41 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model