Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to BAL 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-T.White to BAL 43 for 15 yards (47-C.Hughlett). FUMBLES (47-C.Hughlett), recovered by BAL-40-K.Young at BAL 42. 40-K.Young to BAL 42 for no gain (36-J.McKinnon).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.20 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model