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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 36

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 6-C.Sturgis 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.08 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model