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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 76

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 29

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to LAC 39, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.02 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP